Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:37 pm at Lihue); 2 already left

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 17:01, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Portland on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h ahead of Lihue). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LIH 17:01 → HNL 17:53AS 1134	3h 58m Honolulu	HNL 21:51 → PDX 06:27 +1AS 961	10h 26m	100%	78%
Alaska Details →	LIH 17:48 → HNL 18:40AS 1144	3h 03m Honolulu	HNL 21:43 → PDX 06:11 +1AS 879	9h 23m	100%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON