Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:52 pm at Lihue); 1 already left

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: DL 375 at 21:55 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops today


DL 375 Delta Flight history →	LIH 21:55	SEA 06:40	11%	4%	1.3%	89%
AS 213 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 22:28	SEA 07:12	22%	6%	1.0%	82%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h ahead of Lihue). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LIH 17:01 → HNL 17:53AS 1134	3h 38m Honolulu	HNL 21:31 → SEA 06:22 +1AS 854	10h 21m	100%	65%
Alaska Details →	LIH 19:55 → HNL 20:47AS 1174	2h 33m Honolulu	HNL 23:20 → SEA 08:00 +1AS 900	9h 05m	100%	64%
Alaska Details →	LIH 17:48 → HNL 18:40AS 1144	2h 40m Honolulu	HNL 21:20 → SEA 05:59 +1AS 122	9h 11m	99%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON