Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:23 am at Lihue)

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 12:39, is the safest bet: 56% chance of reaching San Francisco on time.

Nonstops today


UA 1112 United Flight history →	LIH 12:50	SFO 21:10	9%	5%	0.7%	90%
AS 788 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 15:43	SFO 23:56	19%	9%	1.3%	78%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h ahead of Lihue). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LIH 11:48 → HNL 12:40AS 1074	2h 11m Honolulu	HNL 14:51 → SFO 22:52AS 812	8h 04m	99%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON