Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 4–6% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1565 LIT 05:25 → ATL 07:59 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 1396 LIT 06:47 → ATL 09:25 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time

Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 4% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1565 Delta Flight history →	LIT 05:25	ATL 07:59	4%	2%	0.7%	94%
DL 3033 Delta Flight history →	LIT 09:27	ATL 12:05	5%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 3040 Delta Flight history →	LIT 11:50	ATL 14:28	5%	3%	0.7%	93%
DL 2061 Delta	LIT 19:06	ATL 21:51	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 3027 Delta Flight history →	LIT 15:59	ATL 18:42	5%	2%	0.6%	84%
DL 3025 Delta Flight history →	LIT 19:00	ATL 21:50	5%	2%	0.6%	80%
DL 1396 Delta Flight history →	LIT 06:47	ATL 09:25	6%	2%	0.7%	93%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON