Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 3630 at 06:00, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 3630 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 06:00	DCA 09:29	5%	2%	0.6%	94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Little Rock). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	LIT 05:38 → DFW 07:16AA 4049 · flown by Envoy	1h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:49 → DCA 13:04AA 1151	6h 26m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	LIT 05:25 → ATL 07:59DL 1565	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380	5h 02m	98%	88%
United Details →	LIT 07:25 → ORD 09:25UA 4528 · flown by GoJet	3h 20m Chicago	ORD 12:45 → DCA 15:52UA 752	7h 27m	98%	86%
American Details →	LIT 06:31 → ORD 08:42AA 3656 · flown by Envoy	1h 40m Chicago	ORD 10:22 → DCA 13:28AA 1200	5h 57m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	LIT 09:27 → ATL 12:05DL 3033	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 15:35 → DCA 17:30DL 850	7h 03m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	LIT 15:59 → ATL 18:42DL 3027	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	6h 53m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	LIT 06:47 → ATL 09:25DL 1396	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 11:13 → DCA 12:56DL 1961	5h 09m	96%	84%
American Details →	LIT 07:03 → DFW 08:27AA 3589 · flown by Envoy	1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:38 → DCA 13:49AA 2399	5h 46m	95%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON