Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2865 LIT 13:48 → DEN 14:58 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5429 LIT 16:39 → DEN 18:25 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2865 Southwest	LIT 13:48	DEN 14:58	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1910 United	LIT 09:11	DEN 10:33	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 4686 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LIT 13:35	DEN 15:04	7%	3%	0.5%	88%
UA 5429 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LIT 16:39	DEN 18:25	16%	3%	0.5%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON