Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4049 at 05:38 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–16%.

Safest bet that day AA 4049 LIT 05:38 → DFW 07:16 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest OH 5615 LIT 16:08 → DFW 17:25 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4049 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 05:38	DFW 07:16	4%	3%	0.7%	86%
AA 3641 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 08:57	DFW 10:18	8%	3%	0.7%	79%
OH 5599 PSA	LIT 11:33	DFW 13:02	8%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 3898 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 13:33	DFW 14:56	9%	3%	0.7%	68%
MQ 3505 Envoy	LIT 18:36	DFW 20:02	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3520 Envoy	LIT 17:39	DFW 19:03	13%	2%	0.7%	no record
OH 5615 PSA	LIT 16:08	DFW 17:25	16%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON