Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3656 LIT 06:31 → ORD 08:42 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest MQ 3588 LIT 12:07 → ORD 13:58 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3656 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 06:31	ORD 08:42	8%	2%	0.7%	78%
MQ 3663 Envoy	LIT 20:00	ORD 21:53	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3588 Envoy	LIT 12:07	ORD 13:58	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 4410 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	LIT 11:13	ORD 13:15	32%	15%	2.7%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON