Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 4323 at 08:11, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 4323 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 08:11	PHX 09:22	8%	2%	0.6%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Little Rock). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	LIT 07:09 → CLT 10:18AA 4158 · flown by Envoy	1h 19m Charlotte	CLT 11:37 → PHX 12:56AA 588	7h 47m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	LIT 17:52 → SLC 19:59DL 4052 · flown by SkyWest	2h 46m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:45 → PHX 23:31DL 1496	7h 39m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	LIT 05:25 → ATL 07:59DL 1565	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 11:04 → PHX 11:59DL 687	8h 34m	99%	87%
American Details →	LIT 05:38 → DFW 07:16AA 4049 · flown by Envoy	3h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:40 → PHX 11:24AA 2905	7h 46m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	LIT 11:50 → ATL 14:28DL 3040	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 17:59 → PHX 18:53DL 836	9h 03m	99%	83%
American Details →	LIT 07:03 → DFW 08:27AA 3589 · flown by Envoy	3h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:35 → PHX 12:16AA 359	7h 13m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	LIT 06:47 → ATL 09:25DL 1396	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796	7h 16m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	LIT 09:27 → ATL 12:05DL 3033	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366	6h 51m	97%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON