Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, DL 4052 at 18:01, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 4052 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LIT 18:01	SLC 20:15	5%	2%	0.5%	95%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Little Rock). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LIT 05:25 → ATL 07:59DL 1565	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	9h 25m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	LIT 09:27 → ATL 12:05DL 3033	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526	8h 51m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	LIT 11:50 → ATL 14:28DL 3040	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → SLC 20:02DL 653	9h 12m	99%	87%
United Details →	LIT 16:39 → DEN 18:25UA 5429 · flown by SkyWest	2h 40m Denver	DEN 21:05 → SLC 22:44UA 5646 · flown by SkyWest	7h 05m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	LIT 15:59 → ATL 18:42DL 3027	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 22:25 → SLC 00:26 +1DL 453	9h 27m	99%	84%
United Details →	LIT 07:26 → ORD 09:27UA 4528 · flown by GoJet	3h 18m Chicago	ORD 12:45 → SLC 15:22UA 1955	8h 56m	97%	83%
United Details →	LIT 14:37 → ORD 16:47UA 4182 · flown by GoJet	3h 23m Chicago	ORD 20:10 → SLC 22:48UA 1710	9h 11m	96%	80%
American Details →	LIT 07:04 → DFW 08:30AA 3589 · flown by Envoy	2h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:22 → SLC 13:20AA 1871	7h 16m	98%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON