Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 4807 at 13:45 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 4807 MAF 13:45 → DEN 14:47 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest UA 5472 MAF 17:23 → DEN 18:25 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4807 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MAF 13:45	DEN 14:47	7%	4%	0.7%	85%
UA 5794 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MAF 07:25	DEN 08:42	8%	6%	0.7%	91%
UA 5472 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MAF 17:23	DEN 18:25	18%	5%	0.7%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON