Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 4075 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–15%.

Safest bet that day AA 4075 MAF 05:00 → DFW 06:20 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 3653 MAF 17:23 → DFW 18:49 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4075 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MAF 05:00	DFW 06:20	5%	4%	0.7%	91%
MQ 3698 Envoy	MAF 06:03	DFW 07:38	6%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 6381 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MAF 07:16	DFW 08:44	8%	6%	0.7%	90%
AA 3352 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MAF 08:15	DFW 09:44	9%	3%	0.7%	88%
AA 3643 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MAF 10:22	DFW 11:45	9%	3%	0.7%	90%
MQ 3511 Envoy	MAF 12:23	DFW 13:49	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 6199 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MAF 18:36	DFW 20:13	12%	5%	0.6%	60%
MQ 3512 Envoy	MAF 14:44	DFW 16:08	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 3653 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MAF 17:23	DFW 18:49	15%	3%	0.7%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON