tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 205 at 07:18, with a 2% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 205 Southwest MAF 07:18 LAS 07:42 2% 1% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Midland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MAF 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 4075 · flown by Envoy 2h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:39 → LAS 09:40AA 1550 6h 40m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → MAF 09:37 → IAH 11:15UA 6260 · flown by Mesa 3h 05m Houston IAH 14:20 → LAS 15:37UA 1971 8h 00m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → MAF 07:25 → DEN 08:42UA 5794 · flown by SkyWest 2h 40m Denver DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526 6h 59m 95% 87%
UnitedDetails → MAF 11:57 → IAH 13:37UA 4011 · flown by Mesa 3h 22m Houston IAH 16:59 → LAS 18:39UA 2190 8h 42m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → MAF 14:15 → IAH 15:57UA 4061 · flown by Mesa 2h 42m Houston IAH 18:39 → LAS 19:57UA 2406 7h 42m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → MAF 13:45 → DEN 14:47UA 4807 · flown by SkyWest 1h 07m Denver DEN 15:54 → LAS 16:56UA 2424 5h 11m 94% 82%
AmericanDetails → MAF 17:23 → DFW 18:49AA 3653 · flown by Envoy 2h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:30 → LAS 22:37AA 2371 7h 14m 96% 81%
AmericanDetails → MAF 08:15 → DFW 09:44AA 3352 · flown by Envoy 2h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:18 → LAS 13:06AA 777 6h 51m 99% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON