tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:55 am at Midland); 1 already left
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Bush, leaving 10:05, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Phoenix on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Midland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MAF 10:05 → IAH 11:23UA 6260 · flown by Mesa 3h 05m Houston IAH 14:28 → PHX 15:34UA 1798 7h 29m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → MAF 12:05 → IAH 13:36UA 4011 · flown by Mesa 3h 10m Houston IAH 16:46 → PHX 17:43UA 1478 7h 38m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → MAF 14:16 → IAH 16:11UA 4061 · flown by Mesa 3h 42m Houston IAH 19:53 → PHX 20:42UA 2078 8h 26m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → MAF 17:23 → DEN 18:25UA 5472 · flown by SkyWest 2h 32m Denver DEN 20:57 → PHX 22:01UA 1194 6h 38m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → MAF 13:45 → DEN 14:47UA 4807 · flown by SkyWest 1h 24m Denver DEN 16:11 → PHX 17:15UA 1254 5h 30m 93% 78%
AmericanDetails → MAF 10:21 → DFW 11:44AA 3643 · flown by Envoy 3h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:45 → PHX 15:24AA 801 7h 03m 99% 75%
AmericanDetails → MAF 18:43 → DFW 20:09AA 6199 · flown by SkyWest 2h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:53 → PHX 23:37AA 1931 6h 54m 98% 72%
AmericanDetails → MAF 17:23 → DFW 18:49AA 3653 · flown by Envoy 2h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:29 → PHX 22:09AA 2942 6h 46m 96% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON