Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 5–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1297 MCI 06:31 → CLT 10:00 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 9828 MCI 21:10 → CLT 00:24 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1297 American Flight history →	MCI 06:31	CLT 10:00	5%	3%	0.6%	93%
AA 1003 American Flight history →	MCI 07:43	CLT 11:10	6%	3%	0.6%	66%
AA 1616 American Flight history →	MCI 10:50	CLT 14:16	6%	3%	0.6%	84%
AA 1619 American Flight history →	MCI 14:39	CLT 17:56	9%	3%	0.6%	76%
AA 9828 American	MCI 21:10	CLT 00:24	10%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON