Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 2–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4192 MCI 06:24 → DAL 08:03 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4194 MCI 18:13 → DAL 19:45 · 8% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4192 Southwest	MCI 06:24	DAL 08:03	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4031 Southwest	MCI 09:08	DAL 10:39	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3760 Southwest	MCI 11:33	DAL 13:09	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4386 Southwest	MCI 13:57	DAL 15:29	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4194 Southwest	MCI 18:13	DAL 19:45	8%	2%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON