Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2722 at 07:49 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15%.

Safest bet that day WN 2722 MCI 07:49 → DCA 11:22 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5472 MCI 16:18 → DCA 19:54 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2722 Southwest	MCI 07:49	DCA 11:22	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
AA 9751 American	MCI 04:13	DCA 08:14	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
OH 5644 PSA	MCI 06:17	DCA 09:55	8%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 2344 Southwest	MCI 12:22	DCA 15:54	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 2853 American	MCI 10:00	DCA 13:45	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2974 Southwest	MCI 18:06	DCA 21:35	15%	3%	0.5%	no record
OH 5472 PSA	MCI 16:18	DCA 19:54	15%	5%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON