Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 12 nonstops are 3–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1282 MCI 07:24 → DEN 08:21 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1737 MCI 17:26 → DEN 18:15 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1282 Southwest	MCI 07:24	DEN 08:21	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 355 United Flight history →	MCI 06:00	DEN 06:56	4%	1%	0.6%	97%
OO 4761 SkyWest	MCI 11:37	DEN 12:36	5%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 549 Southwest	MCI 10:00	DEN 10:44	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 849 Southwest	MCI 11:16	DEN 12:02	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2495 Southwest	MCI 12:36	DEN 13:20	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 708 United Flight history →	MCI 13:40	DEN 14:35	6%	2%	0.5%	88%
UA 1384 United Flight history →	MCI 09:31	DEN 10:34	8%	2%	0.5%	66%
WN 3401 Southwest	MCI 16:29	DEN 17:12	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2501 Southwest	MCI 19:07	DEN 19:54	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
F9 4827 Frontier	MCI 20:23	DEN 21:25	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 1737 United	MCI 17:26	DEN 18:15	13%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON