Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 1261 at 06:42 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–15%.

Safest bet that day AA 1261 MCI 06:42 → DFW 08:42 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 3030 MCI 17:23 → DFW 19:09 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 40% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1261 American Flight history →	MCI 06:42	DFW 08:42	5%	3%	0.7%	87%
AA 1098 American Flight history →	MCI 05:31	DFW 07:23	6%	3%	0.7%	89%
MQ 3471 Envoy	MCI 14:28	DFW 16:14	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 1582 American	MCI 07:59	DFW 09:46	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2430 American	MCI 09:37	DFW 11:16	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3331 American Flight history →	MCI 11:18	DFW 13:05	10%	5%	0.6%	64%
AA 1376 American Flight history →	MCI 12:56	DFW 14:47	11%	5%	0.6%	74%
AA 3030 American Flight history →	MCI 17:23	DFW 19:09	15%	6%	0.7%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON