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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 12:16, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Panama City Beach on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 12:16 → ATL 15:23DL 2908 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 18:59 → ECP 19:10DL 3053 6h 54m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCI 17:40 → ATL 20:54DL 1660 2h 33m Atlanta ATL 23:27 → ECP 23:37DL 3131 5h 57m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212 3h 46m Atlanta ATL 13:49 → ECP 13:54DL 2823 6h 54m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 1h 58m Atlanta ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045 5h 09m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCI 10:43 → ATL 13:47DL 2471 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 16:01 → ECP 16:12DL 3094 5h 29m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → MCI 05:31 → DFW 07:23AA 1098 2h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:31 → ECP 11:41AA 3625 · flown by Envoy 6h 10m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → MCI 06:31 → CLT 10:00AA 1297 54m Charlotte CLT 10:54 → ECP 11:37AA 5262 · flown by PSA 5h 06m 95% 78%
AmericanDetails → MCI 06:44 → DFW 08:33AA 1261 3h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:19 → ECP 14:28AA 2052 7h 44m 99% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON