tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1813 United MCI 06:31 EWR 10:30 6% 3% 0.6% no record
YX 3514 Republic MCI 15:12 EWR 19:19 13% 3% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 16:04 → MSP 17:40DL 1613 2h 35m Minneapolis MSP 20:15 → EWR 23:56DL 2846 6h 52m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 1h 22m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401 5h 42m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635 1h 20m Minneapolis MSP 09:14 → EWR 12:56DL 2895 5h 33m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:25 → DTW 09:23DL 1256 52m Detroit DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577 4h 31m 96% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCI 09:13 → MSP 10:50DL 4867 · flown by Endeavor 3h 20m Minneapolis MSP 14:10 → EWR 17:53DL 2866 7h 40m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312 6h 16m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:05 → SLC 08:41DL 2897 1h 48m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49DL 2033 8h 44m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355 3h 02m Denver DEN 09:58 → EWR 16:00UA 2381 9h 00m 98% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON