Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 3–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 2503 Southwest	MCI 08:34	HOU 10:40	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2505 Southwest	MCI 17:26	HOU 19:30	8%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195	6h 31m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	MCI 10:43 → ATL 13:47DL 2471	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	5h 39m	99%	89%
American Details →	MCI 12:56 → DFW 14:47AA 1376	3h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:43 → HOU 20:04AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	7h 08m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MCI 15:38 → ATL 18:48DL 1443	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	6h 13m	98%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON