tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1572 United MCI 11:43 IAD 15:20 6% 2% 0.5% no record
YX 3546 Republic MCI 17:34 IAD 21:23 8% 2% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 16:04 → MSP 17:40DL 1613 2h 10m Minneapolis MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest 6h 16m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 3h 34m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135 7h 22m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → MCI 09:13 → MSP 10:50DL 4867 · flown by Endeavor 3h 40m Minneapolis MSP 14:30 → IAD 18:04DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest 7h 51m 100% 92%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355 1h 04m Denver DEN 08:00 → IAD 13:26UA 1101 6h 26m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → MCI 10:32 → DTW 13:30DL 2826 1h 38m Detroit DTW 15:08 → IAD 16:41DL 1787 5h 09m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCI 08:00 → ATL 11:01DL 3110 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695 7h 46m 100% 89%
AmericanDetails → MCI 05:31 → DFW 07:23AA 1098 2h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:16 → IAD 14:31AA 524 8h 00m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → MCI 07:53 → ORD 09:45UA 1491 3h 21m Chicago ORD 13:06 → IAD 16:14UA 1128 7h 21m 100% 88%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON