Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 3151 at 16:40, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3151 Southwest	MCI 16:40	IND 19:10	9%	2%	0.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MCI 07:53 → ORD 09:45UA 1491	3h 02m Chicago	ORD 12:47 → IND 15:03UA 3702 · flown by Republic	6h 10m	99%	94%
Delta Details →	MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013	5h 57m	100%	94%
Delta Details →	MCI 06:00 → LGA 09:50DL 370	1h 55m New York	LGA 11:45 → IND 14:06DL 5642 · flown by Republic	7h 06m	98%	93%
Delta Details →	MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → IND 15:19DL 3134	7h 19m	99%	92%
United Details →	MCI 06:16 → IAH 08:25UA 740	3h 30m Houston	IAH 11:55 → IND 15:25UA 1687	8h 09m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	MCI 10:43 → ATL 13:47DL 2471	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 15:55 → IND 17:35DL 2979	5h 52m	99%	92%
United Details →	MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355	3h 02m Denver	DEN 09:58 → IND 14:35UA 1522	7h 35m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635	56m Minneapolis	MSP 08:50 → IND 11:28DL 2456	4h 05m	96%	91%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON