Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, DL 5262 at 12:25, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 5262 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MCI 12:25	JFK 16:16	9%	3%	0.8%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCI 12:16 → ATL 15:23DL 2908	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2398	8h 13m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	MCI 08:00 → ATL 11:01DL 3110	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → JFK 16:29DL 1575	7h 29m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380	6h 41m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	MCI 15:38 → ATL 18:48DL 1443	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 22:34 → JFK 00:46 +1DL 1632	8h 08m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	MCI 06:25 → DTW 09:23DL 1256	51m Detroit	DTW 10:14 → JFK 11:58DL 2751	4h 33m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	MCI 16:04 → MSP 17:40DL 1613	2h 42m Minneapolis	MSP 20:22 → JFK 00:02 +1DL 2692	6h 58m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	MCI 10:32 → DTW 13:30DL 2826	2h 48m Detroit	DTW 16:18 → JFK 18:29DL 2934	6h 57m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MCI 07:05 → SLC 08:41DL 2897	1h 18m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792	8h 42m	98%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON