Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 2–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4765 MCI 06:54 → LAS 07:51 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4505 MCI 01:46 → LAS 03:04 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4765 Southwest	MCI 06:54	LAS 07:51	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4151 Southwest	MCI 10:08	LAS 11:06	4%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 4688 Southwest	MCI 12:28	LAS 13:23	5%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 4197 Southwest	MCI 14:19	LAS 15:33	6%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 4770 Southwest	MCI 17:40	LAS 18:48	6%	3%	0.5%	no record
F9 4505 Frontier Flight history →	MCI 01:46	LAS 03:04	11%	6%	0.9%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON