Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 2599 at 06:09 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 2599 MCI 06:09 → LGA 10:01 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2980 MCI 17:51 → LGA 21:39 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2599 Southwest	MCI 06:09	LGA 10:01	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 370 Delta Flight history →	MCI 06:00	LGA 09:50	4%	2%	0.7%	89%
DL 572 Delta Flight history →	MCI 10:40	LGA 14:32	8%	2%	0.7%	84%
WN 3231 Southwest	MCI 11:57	LGA 15:40	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2068 Delta Flight history →	MCI 18:55	LGA 22:46	11%	4%	0.8%	75%
WN 2980 Southwest	MCI 17:51	LGA 21:39	15%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON