Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 2515 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 2515 MCI 05:59 → MCO 09:49 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2517 MCI 15:16 → MCO 18:53 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 4% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2515 Southwest	MCI 05:59	MCO 09:49	3%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 2516 Southwest	MCI 09:15	MCO 12:52	7%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 2517 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 15:16	MCO 18:53	24%	8%	1.6%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON