Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 2–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3473 MCI 06:19 → MDW 07:48 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2523 MCI 17:46 → MDW 19:08 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3473 Southwest	MCI 06:19	MDW 07:48	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4630 Southwest	MCI 08:21	MDW 09:36	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4829 Southwest	MCI 10:31	MDW 11:59	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2525 Southwest	MCI 15:37	MDW 17:09	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2522 Southwest	MCI 13:44	MDW 15:08	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1807 Southwest	MCI 16:55	MDW 18:29	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2523 Southwest	MCI 17:46	MDW 19:08	9%	2%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON