Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:39, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Miami on time.

Nonstops that day


AA 892 American Flight history →	MCI 05:00	MIA 09:18	8%	2%	0.7%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204	2h 17m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	6h 23m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635	1h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 09:03 → MIA 13:40DL 793	6h 17m	97%	90%
American Details →	MCI 06:31 → CLT 10:00AA 1297	1h 02m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	5h 40m	96%	88%
American Details →	MCI 06:00 → PHL 09:45AA 946	1h 38m Philadelphia	PHL 11:23 → MIA 14:24AA 1989	7h 24m	98%	88%
American Details →	MCI 05:31 → DFW 07:23AA 1098	1h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:58 → MIA 12:56AA 1219	6h 25m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	MCI 06:00 → LGA 09:50DL 370	1h 25m New York	LGA 11:15 → MIA 14:24DL 1538	7h 24m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 13:32 → MIA 15:26DL 1323	7h 26m	99%	84%
American Details →	MCI 06:42 → DFW 08:42AA 1261	1h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:20 → MIA 14:29AA 1454	6h 47m	97%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON