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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:39, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching New Orleans on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542 5h 58m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → MCI 09:31 → DEN 10:35UA 1384 2h 38m Denver DEN 13:13 → MSY 16:58UA 250 7h 27m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355 2h 54m Denver DEN 09:50 → MSY 13:39UA 2273 7h 39m 98% 91%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:16 → IAH 08:25UA 740 3h 30m Houston IAH 11:55 → MSY 13:14UA 2385 6h 58m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157 7h 17m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCI 10:43 → ATL 13:47DL 2471 1h 36m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146 5h 14m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCI 09:13 → MSP 10:50DL 4867 · flown by Endeavor 1h 55m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → MSY 15:25DL 2695 6h 12m 94% 86%
AmericanDetails → MCI 06:31 → CLT 10:00AA 1297 1h 26m Charlotte CLT 11:26 → MSY 12:23AA 2030 5h 52m 98% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON