Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: YX 4377 at 05:17 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–14%.

Safest bet that day YX 4377 MCI 05:17 → ORD 06:59 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 303 MCI 18:41 → ORD 20:33 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4377 Republic	MCI 05:17	ORD 06:59	3%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 5680 SkyWest	MCI 06:03	ORD 07:52	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1491 United Flight history →	MCI 07:53	ORD 09:45	6%	2%	0.6%	86%
OO 5735 SkyWest	MCI 10:01	ORD 11:44	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 6349 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MCI 09:31	ORD 11:12	7%	3%	0.6%	80%
UA 2437 United Flight history →	MCI 11:25	ORD 13:15	8%	3%	0.6%	82%
OO 6215 SkyWest	MCI 12:13	ORD 13:53	8%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 5309 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MCI 13:03	ORD 14:55	8%	4%	0.7%	76%
MQ 3517 Envoy	MCI 14:07	ORD 15:48	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 3939 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MCI 15:54	ORD 17:31	9%	3%	0.7%	76%
OO 6304 SkyWest	MCI 19:25	ORD 21:02	12%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 1369 United	MCI 15:06	ORD 16:44	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 5853 SkyWest	MCI 16:59	ORD 18:43	13%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 303 United Flight history →	MCI 18:41	ORD 20:33	14%	5%	0.6%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON