Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AS 512 at 14:46, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AS 512 Alaska	MCI 14:46	PDX 16:32	8%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 2 h behind Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635	3h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → PDX 12:38DL 2167	8h 15m	99%	94%
United Details →	MCI 08:51 → DEN 09:41UA 1384	3h 46m Denver	DEN 13:27 → PDX 15:13UA 2455	8h 22m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	MCI 07:05 → SLC 08:41DL 2897	2h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	7h 05m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	MCI 10:37 → MSP 12:10DL 3867 · flown by SkyWest	3h 48m Minneapolis	MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008	8h 58m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204	2h 17m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206	9h 19m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	MCI 18:00 → SLC 19:41DL 2903	3h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → PDX 23:44DL 1373	7h 44m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	MCI 10:43 → ATL 13:47DL 2471	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503	10h 13m	100%	90%
United Details →	MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355	1h 09m Denver	DEN 08:05 → PDX 09:47UA 1247	5h 47m	96%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON