Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 946 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 946 MCI 06:00 → PHL 09:45 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1268 MCI 16:30 → PHL 20:30 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 946 American Flight history →	MCI 06:00	PHL 09:45	10%	4%	0.5%	91%
AA 2492 American	MCI 07:22	PHL 11:22	10%	5%	0.5%	no record
AA 2947 American	MCI 07:48	PHL 11:49	10%	3%	1.2%	no record
AA 1480 American	MCI 12:03	PHL 15:58	16%	3%	1.2%	no record
AA 1268 American Flight history →	MCI 16:30	PHL 20:30	23%	6%	0.9%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON