Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 946 MCI 06:00 → PHL 09:45 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1480 MCI 12:01 → PHL 15:56 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 946 American Flight history →	MCI 06:00	PHL 09:45	6%	3%	0.6%	91%
AA 2492 American	MCI 07:20	PHL 11:20	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2947 American	MCI 07:48	PHL 11:49	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1480 American	MCI 12:01	PHL 15:56	12%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON