Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 3–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2528 MCI 06:54 → PHX 07:46 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2531 MCI 18:03 → PHX 19:33 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2528 Southwest	MCI 06:54	PHX 07:46	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1789 Southwest	MCI 11:27	PHX 12:24	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 2645 American Flight history →	MCI 08:46	PHX 09:54	7%	3%	0.6%	92%
WN 2530 Southwest	MCI 14:46	PHX 15:54	7%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 340 Southwest	MCI 13:06	PHX 14:08	8%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 2531 Southwest	MCI 18:03	PHX 19:33	9%	3%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON