Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day


DL 4648 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MCI 18:55	RDU 22:26	25%	9%	3.4%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204	1h 19m Atlanta	ATL 10:02 → RDU 11:35DL 2052	4h 56m	100%	94%
Delta Details →	MCI 08:00 → ATL 11:01DL 3110	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550	7h 20m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 13:05 → RDU 14:30DL 2026	6h 30m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635	2h 27m Minneapolis	MSP 10:21 → RDU 13:51DL 2521	6h 28m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	MCI 06:25 → DTW 09:23DL 1256	52m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → RDU 11:57DL 2164	4h 32m	96%	92%
Delta Details →	MCI 10:32 → DTW 13:30DL 2826	2h 32m Detroit	DTW 16:02 → RDU 17:47DL 1407	6h 15m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	MCI 09:13 → MSP 10:50DL 4867 · flown by Endeavor	3h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 14:20 → RDU 17:51DL 2699	7h 38m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	MCI 10:43 → ATL 13:47DL 2471	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 17:18 → RDU 18:54DL 1097	7h 11m	100%	91%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON