Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:31 pm at Kansas City); 2 already left

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 18:00, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching San Diego on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCI 18:00 → SLC 19:41DL 2903	3h 14m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:55 → SAN 23:50DL 1202	7h 50m	99%	77%
United Details →	MCI 16:26 → LAX 18:10UA 5489 · flown by SkyWest	1h 08m Los Angeles	LAX 19:18 → SAN 20:31UA 1100	6h 05m	87%	76%
American Details →	MCI 15:53 → ORD 17:30AA 3939 · flown by Envoy	3h 41m Chicago	ORD 21:11 → SAN 23:36AA 2994	9h 43m	100%	72%
Delta Details →	MCI 15:55 → LAX 17:20DL 1517	1h 00m Los Angeles	LAX 18:20 → SAN 19:17DL 4087 · flown by SkyWest	5h 22m	85%	71%
Delta Details →	MCI 15:32 → MSP 17:01DL 1613	1h 22m Minneapolis	MSP 18:23 → SAN 20:06DL 2145	6h 34m	90%	70%
Delta Details →	MCI 14:32 → ATL 17:46DL 2747	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 20:18 → SAN 21:57DL 819	9h 25m	99%	67%
American Details →	MCI 17:14 → DFW 19:01AA 3030	3h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:32 → SAN 23:42AA 2568	8h 28m	99%	66%
Alaska Details →	MCI 15:10 → SEA 17:00AS 418	3h 34m Seattle	SEA 20:34 → SAN 23:13AS 254	10h 03m	99%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON