Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 13:40, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching San Francisco on time.

Nonstops that day


UA 2051 United Flight history →	MCI 07:36	SFO 09:32	10%	4%	0.4%	94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635	3h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074	8h 46m	99%	89%
United Details →	MCI 08:51 → DEN 09:43UA 1384	1h 38m Denver	DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	6h 13m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MCI 10:38 → MSP 12:11DL 3867 · flown by SkyWest	2h 56m Minneapolis	MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756	8h 34m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MCI 18:00 → SLC 19:41DL 2903	3h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → SFO 23:52DL 1091	7h 52m	100%	87%
United Details →	MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355	2h 47m Denver	DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506	7h 25m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	MCI 06:25 → DTW 09:23DL 1256	2h 52m Detroit	DTW 12:15 → SFO 14:17DL 469	9h 52m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	MCI 12:16 → ATL 15:23DL 2908	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 18:08 → SFO 20:05DL 517	9h 49m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MCI 10:43 → ATL 13:47DL 2471	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 15:35 → SFO 17:31DL 823	8h 48m	99%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON