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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 18:00, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Sacramento on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 18:00 → SLC 19:41DL 2903 3h 23m Salt Lake City SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582 7h 44m 100% 93%
FrontierDetails → MCI 01:46 → LAS 03:04F9 4505 3h 03m Las Vegas LAS 06:07 → SMF 07:59F9 4779 8h 13m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:05 → SLC 08:41DL 2897 2h 54m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 7h 11m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635 2h 30m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 7h 46m 99% 91%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355 1h 04m Denver DEN 08:00 → SMF 09:35UA 2149 5h 35m 96% 90%
UnitedDetails → MCI 09:31 → DEN 10:34UA 1384 3h 01m Denver DEN 13:35 → SMF 15:10UA 662 7h 39m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCI 15:38 → ATL 18:48DL 1443 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SMF 22:53DL 682 9h 15m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCI 15:55 → LAX 17:20DL 1517 1h 24m Los Angeles LAX 18:44 → SMF 20:21DL 3712 · flown by SkyWest 6h 26m 97% 88%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON