Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 19%, against 8% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2663 at 06:45, 6%.

Safest bet that day WN 2663 MCI 06:45 → TPA 10:24 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4935 MCI 15:55 → TPA 19:35 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Weather 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2663 Southwest	MCI 06:45	TPA 10:24	6%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 2354 Southwest	MCI 13:54	TPA 17:26	25%	10%	1.2%	no record
WN 4935 Southwest	MCI 15:55	TPA 19:35	26%	7%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON