Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 19%, against 8% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1548 at 05:30, 3%.

Safest bet that day DL 1548 MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 4025 MCO 17:24 → ATL 19:25 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Weather 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1548 Delta Flight history →	MCO 05:30	ATL 07:03	3%	1%	1.3%	95%
DL 1494 Delta Flight history →	MCO 06:15	ATL 07:58	3%	2%	1.3%	94%
DL 2080 Delta Flight history →	MCO 07:05	ATL 08:46	5%	2%	1.3%	90%
DL 1463 Delta Flight history →	MCO 08:05	ATL 09:42	7%	3%	1.3%	90%
DL 2204 Delta Flight history →	MCO 10:05	ATL 11:41	8%	3%	1.2%	89%
DL 1505 Delta Flight history →	MCO 09:05	ATL 10:45	10%	3%	1.2%	88%
DL 1213 Delta Flight history →	MCO 11:05	ATL 12:42	11%	3%	1.3%	84%
WN 1332 Southwest	MCO 09:03	ATL 10:41	12%	2%	0.8%	no record
DL 1658 Delta Flight history →	MCO 12:05	ATL 13:45	16%	4%	1.3%	81%
DL 664 Delta Flight history →	MCO 13:05	ATL 14:44	18%	5%	1.6%	82%
DL 1030 Delta Flight history →	MCO 14:05	ATL 15:55	18%	6%	1.8%	75%
DL 1372 Delta Flight history →	MCO 15:40	ATL 17:30	19%	9%	1.8%	67%
DL 1576 Delta Flight history →	MCO 15:33	ATL 17:12	19%	9%	1.8%	72%
F9 1241 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 09:24	ATL 11:16	22%	6%	1.3%	67%
WN 2542 Southwest	MCO 14:02	ATL 15:33	27%	6%	1.0%	no record
F9 3507 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 12:43	ATL 14:29	28%	10%	1.3%	70%
DL 1742 Delta Flight history →	MCO 18:52	ATL 20:54	28%	18%	1.8%	55%
DL 1497 Delta Flight history →	MCO 19:55	ATL 21:48	28%	17%	1.8%	67%
DL 1150 Delta Flight history →	MCO 17:45	ATL 19:47	30%	17%	1.6%	60%
WN 2543 Southwest	MCO 18:53	ATL 20:26	41%	16%	2.1%	no record
F9 4025 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 17:24	ATL 19:25	46%	19%	2.7%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON