Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 28%, against 12% on a calm day. Safest: WN 990 at 10:05, 14%.

Safest bet that day WN 990 MCO 10:05 → BDL 12:51 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2234 MCO 17:52 → BDL 20:27 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Weather 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 990 Southwest	MCO 10:05	BDL 12:51	14%	3%	0.8%	no record
B6 138 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 16:45	BDL 19:38	30%	14%	1.3%	86%worse than usual
WN 2234 Southwest	MCO 17:52	BDL 20:27	41%	13%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON