tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 28%, against 9% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3761 at 13:25, 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3761 Southwest MCO 13:25 BHM 13:56 28% 6% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 2h 57m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → BHM 09:57DL 3164 5h 27m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017 5h 55m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → MCO 08:05 → ATL 09:42DL 1463 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 13:31 → BHM 13:24DL 3012 6h 19m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MCO 11:05 → ATL 12:42DL 1213 3h 43m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → BHM 16:22DL 2484 6h 17m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:41DL 2204 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 15:14 → BHM 15:10DL 3163 6h 05m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCO 15:40 → ATL 17:30DL 1372 3h 48m Atlanta ATL 21:18 → BHM 21:21DL 2257 6h 41m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → MCO 14:05 → ATL 15:55DL 1030 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 19:19 → BHM 19:22DL 3044 6h 17m 96% 86%
AmericanDetails → MCO 09:30 → DFW 11:24AA 2075 1h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:04 → BHM 14:56AA 3884 · flown by Envoy 6h 26m 95% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MCO 17:19 → IAH 18:58UA 1872 57m Houston IAH 19:55 → BHM 21:53UA 4022 · flown by Mesa 5h 34m 59% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON