Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 20%, against 10% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2436 at 07:00, 4%.

Safest bet that day DL 2436 MCO 07:00 → BOS 10:10 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 1152 MCO 17:22 → BOS 20:35 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Weather 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2436 Delta Flight history →	MCO 07:00	BOS 10:10	4%	2%	1.2%	94%
B6 852 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 07:10	BOS 10:14	7%	2%	1.2%	61%
B6 1952 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 00:03	BOS 02:57	11%	5%	1.2%	58%
B6 552 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 10:12	BOS 13:16	11%	3%	1.2%	90%
DL 1580 Delta Flight history →	MCO 11:16	BOS 14:22	12%	3%	1.0%	82%
B6 2052 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 14:25	BOS 17:28	25%	10%	1.3%	55%
AA 987 American	MCO 14:43	BOS 17:33	30%	9%	1.3%	no record
DL 1474 Delta	MCO 19:56	BOS 22:59	38%	16%	2.2%	no record
B6 1152 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 17:22	BOS 20:35	41%	13%	2.7%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON