Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


F9 1098 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 08:10	BQN 11:04	11%	4%	2.1%	85%
B6 730 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 06:36	BQN 09:37	12%	3%	1.3%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Aguadilla on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MCO 14:37 → EWR 17:30UA 1643	1h 38m Newark	EWR 19:08 → BQN 23:09UA 569	8h 32m	83%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON