Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 28%, against 12% on a calm day. Safest: WN 766 at 09:03, 16%.

Safest bet that day WN 766 MCO 09:03 → BUF 11:49 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1325 MCO 19:12 → BUF 21:52 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Weather 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 766 Southwest	MCO 09:03	BUF 11:49	16%	3%	0.8%	no record
F9 1692 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 15:10	BUF 18:05	23%	8%	2.1%	75%
B6 1586 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 17:55	BUF 20:46	34%	15%	2.3%	64%
WN 1325 Southwest	MCO 19:12	BUF 21:52	39%	16%	2.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON