Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 2562 at 06:23 is the safest bet, 1% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 2562 MCO 06:23 → BWI 08:43 · 1% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 777 MCO 17:36 → BWI 19:59 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2562 Southwest	MCO 06:23	BWI 08:43	1%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 8503 Southwest	MCO 08:23	BWI 10:43	3%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 2563 Southwest	MCO 08:33	BWI 10:48	3%	1%	0.9%	no record
F9 3274 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 06:30	BWI 08:54	5%	2%	2.1%	89%
WN 2568 Southwest	MCO 10:11	BWI 12:23	6%	2%	1.2%	no record
WN 1802 Southwest	MCO 11:14	BWI 13:28	10%	2%	1.2%	no record
WN 2564 Southwest	MCO 13:42	BWI 16:02	10%	4%	1.3%	no record
WN 147 Southwest	MCO 14:57	BWI 17:14	14%	5%	1.6%	no record
F9 4004 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 11:48	BWI 14:25	14%	6%	2.2%	57%
WN 373 Southwest	MCO 16:03	BWI 18:22	18%	5%	2.3%	no record
WN 777 Southwest	MCO 17:36	BWI 19:59	28%	11%	2.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON