Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 28%, against 8% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1572 at 09:00, 10%.

Safest bet that day WN 1572 MCO 09:00 → CMH 11:08 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2327 MCO 19:00 → CMH 21:12 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Weather 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1572 Southwest	MCO 09:00	CMH 11:08	10%	2%	0.8%	no record
F9 2757 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 17:40	CMH 20:14	36%	16%	2.7%	63%
WN 2327 Southwest	MCO 19:00	CMH 21:12	37%	16%	2.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON