Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 26%, against 9% on a calm day. Safest: DL 511 at 11:25, 13%.

Safest bet that day DL 511 MCO 11:25 → CVG 13:37 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest DL 2824 MCO 19:18 → CVG 21:42 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Weather 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 511 Delta Flight history →	MCO 11:25	CVG 13:37	13%	3%	1.3%	80%
F9 2547 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 21:21	CVG 23:49	25%	14%	2.7%	75%
F9 1565 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 17:15	CVG 19:43	32%	14%	3.2%	82%worse than usual
DL 2824 Delta Flight history →	MCO 19:18	CVG 21:42	33%	16%	2.7%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON