Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 1201 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 1201 MCO 06:05 → DTW 08:54 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 337 MCO 17:51 → DTW 20:54 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1201 Delta Flight history →	MCO 06:05	DTW 08:54	2%	2%	1.3%	93%
F9 2529 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 09:07	DTW 11:55	7%	3%	1.3%	78%
DL 2845 Delta Flight history →	MCO 09:02	DTW 11:45	8%	3%	1.3%	91%
DL 1455 Delta Flight history →	MCO 12:28	DTW 15:16	13%	5%	1.8%	79%
DL 2084 Delta	MCO 14:12	DTW 16:58	15%	5%	1.6%	no record
DL 1123 Delta	MCO 16:25	DTW 19:08	20%	6%	1.6%	no record
DL 337 Delta Flight history →	MCO 17:51	DTW 20:54	31%	15%	1.8%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON